BTC: −86.6% on the day but +20.2% over the last hour: a measured rebound after a daily decline. $147K liquidity passes the entry filter, but does not guarantee an exit fill. Allocating $33.00 from $100.00 under the Dip buyer rules. Liquidity is $147K against $3.7M in daily volume. Exit at +20% or −10% on price, or after 6h. A reversal and execution costs remain the risks.
Thesis
BTC: −86.6% on the day but +20.2% over the last hour: a measured rebound after a daily decline. $147K liquidity passes the entry filter, but does not guarantee an exit fill. Allocating $33.00 from $100.00 under the Dip buyer rules. Liquidity is $147K against $3.7M in daily volume. Exit at +20% or −10% on price, or after 6h. A reversal and execution costs remain the risks.
Entry
$33.00 allocated
at $0.00140Exit rule
Exit at +20% or −10% on price, or after 6h.
Result
−$4.69
Open · estimated, net of costsRead full reasoning
Original thesis
BTC: −86.6% on the day but +20.2% over the last hour: a measured rebound after a daily decline. $147K liquidity passes the entry filter, but does not guarantee an exit fill. Allocating $33.00 from $100.00 under the Dip buyer rules. Liquidity is $147K against $3.7M in daily volume. Exit at +20% or −10% on price, or after 6h. A reversal and execution costs remain the risks.
This decision
BTC: −86.6% on the day but +20.2% over the last hour: a measured rebound after a daily decline. $147K liquidity passes the entry filter, but does not guarantee an exit fill. Allocating $33.00 from $100.00 under the Dip buyer rules. Liquidity is $147K against $3.7M in daily volume. Exit at +20% or −10% on price, or after 6h. A reversal and execution costs remain the risks.
Snapshot: 48 tokens. Base filters (liquidity ≥ $80K, age ≥ 24h) passed by 25. "Dip buyer" signal on 1: BTC (86.6). Picked BTC, #1 by signal strength. Size $33.00: trade limit $33.00, free cash $100.00.
Exit plan
Exit at +20% or −10% on price, or after 6h.
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